Sometimes, I worry a bit. I worry both for the country, and also for the Republican Party.
It is quite possible that Mitt Romney or Ron Paul could win the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday. Those outcomes, in my opinion, would be very bad for the party; and very bad for the country also. A Romney victory could enable him to seal up the nomination very quickly. If Ron Paul were to win, it would throw the party and the nomination process into some degree of chaos; and would make it much more difficult for a conservative alternative to Romney to remain viable.
The conservative vote in Iowa is still divided among five candidates. Unless conservatives there begin to think together with more accord over the next several days, we could have a very bad outcome.
But there are additional clouds on the horizon. We continue to hear noises of a possible third party bid on the part of Donald Trump; or even on the part of Ron Paul assuming he fails to secure the GOP nomination. Gary Johnson, who made no headway in the Republican nomination process, is trying to run as a Libertarian.
Another organization, Americans Elect, appears quite determined to set the stage for a third party bid. They claim they want a non-partisan candidate who will forge solutions to the nation's problems; but when I look at the key players, I wonder if their intention is to split the anti-Obama vote in order to secure Obama's re-election.
Any strong third party bid could have that effect.
In addition, there are signs of some minimal improvement in the economy. The media will portray any positive economic news in a highly favorable light over the next 11 months to help Obama-- even if the economy overall remains quite awful.
I am concerned about what the Iowa caucuses and the Republican nominating process will produce. But we also should be concerned about the terrain the nominee might ultimately face. Let's hope for the best, because it will be very bad for the nation if Obama gets re-elected.
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