The Iowa caucuses, which will occur in a mere five weeks, have the potential to "anoint" the candidate who will be the main challenger to Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination.
Iowa traditionally has selected a candidate with social conservative credentials. This year, the state's social conservative establishment seems to be focusing on Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum. It is certainly possible that any of these can build momentum, achieve a head of steam during the caucuses, and ultimately prevail.
But this contest in Iowa is potentially different than those we saw in the past for several reasons. First, concerns over the economy, the national debt, and Obama's push toward Eurosocialism have been preeminent in the eyes of many citizens. Second, several candidates are running who can be described as bona fide social conservatives--not just one. This can tend to divide the social conservative vote, and result in Iowa selecting another candidate. Third, Ron Paul has a passionate base of supporters; and appeals to some voters who emphasize constitutional conservativism and economic liberty. He can theoretically walk away with this contest, or otherwise act as a spoiler. Fourth, many Iowa caucus participants might be focused most on the candidate they believe can beat Romney; or alternatively, on the candidate who can beat Obama.
For these reasons, Iowa seems very difficult to predict.
A couple of weeks ago, Iowa social conservatives sponsored a forum. It was reported in the media, but I do not think it was televised nationwide. There is much in the forum that our culturally liberal friends will absolutely detest-- and even ridicule. But I think the event is very instructive; and social conservatives should make it a point to watch. It actually begins at the 38 minute mark: (HT: World Magazine blog)
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