Presidential Debate #2

Tom Brokaw is the moderator for the presidential debate tonight, which will be conducted in a Town Hall format.  Brokaw gets to choose which audience questions are asked.

John McCain likes this format, and in fact challenged Barack Obama to a series of town hall type debates-- and Obama refused.  But the challenges tonight for McCain are significant.

First, he has to out-empathize Obama with respect to the audience's concerns about the economy.  Recall how Bill Clinton's expressions of empathy with the audience helped him virtually demolish the elder President Bush when a similar debate format was used during 1992.

Second, he has to take an aggressive stance against Obama, and yet remain likable.  Obama will continue to register his ferocious negative attacks, as he and Biden have done consistently over the last six weeks.  But McCain needs to find a way to fight back effectively without turning off the audience too much.

Third, he needs to remain intellectually nimble so as to respond effectively to Obama's negative attacks, and refocus any questions that are framed in a politically biased manner.

As I was watching the vice-presidential debate last week, it was difficult for me to discern bias on the part of the moderator, Gwen Ifill.  Considerable focus had been placed upon her because she is likely pulling for Obama, particularly in view of the theme of her soon-to-be-released book. 

It turns out, however, that her likely partiality toward Obama did play a role Thursday night, in a subtle but discernible way.  Read this analysis to find out why.

Tom Brokaw is affiliated with the most biased of the three major television networks.  His own ideological leanings have appeared to be center-left.  We will see what role he plays tonight.

Comments

[Roch101]

I don't think Obama has been engaged in ferocious attacks, it has been tough comparative campaigning.

[Joe Guarino]

Roch, I think it has been ferocious from the standpoint of being relentlessly negative dating back to the Democratic convention. In fact, it dates back even before then, when he began to demagogue one of the statements McCain made at the Saddleback forum.

During the first debate, Obama launched one missile after another, for instance, tying McCain to Bush on a host of matters, and trying to make it all sound horrible.

[Dr. Mary Johnson]

Roch, please. The treatment of Sarah Palin and her family has been despicable.

[Stormy]

Roch is right, Obama hasn't been much involved in the scorched earth campaign being waged against McCain/Palin now, nor against Hillary before. Obama has done everything that he can do to be above it and appear to be the agent of change and hope, and all the while the smear merchants have done their dirty deeds. Between the MSM, 527's, and his campaign minions, Obama hasn't had to personally stoop to it. Obama has learned his politics quite well in the Chicago machine.

[Beau D. Jackson]

Obama has learned his politics quite well in the Chicago machine.

I think this sums things up quite well, and from all that I have learned Obama had much more than a fleeting relationship with Bill Ayers, and regardless if Obama threatens to bring up the Keating issue, and with Obama having much more dirty laundry in quanity and severity, if I were McCain I'd nail Obama right between the eyes with it. McCain has to make a good impression tonight and I don't think he'll accomplish that if he whimps out. Beau

[Fred Gregory]

Dumb questions except for the last " Zen" one.

[Fred Gregory]

McCain again let Obama get away with that canard abot cutting taxes for 95% of the people when 45% don't even pay taxes. Yikes !!

Wonder if Brokaw threw out questions about Ayers, Wright etc ?

[Stormy]

Obama did say that people making less than $200,000 per year would see their taxes go down, and people making between $200,000 and $250,000 would see their taxes not change. I'm not sure how that matches up with his 95% of people getting a tax cut. Obama keeps throwing out thoughts and it is hard to understand what he is thinking. He id make an interesting comment though that he would get spending cuts from an increase in revenue. Sounds like a tax increase to me.

[Everest]

Thought McCain did better than I expected on the economy, and was very strong on foreign policy, particularly the last question.

To Roch's point, Obama hasn't had to get his hands dirty, with the media doing much of his work for him. The recent AP story about McCain "dumping" the Palin's tax returns on a Friday (so people wouldn't notice) was a classic example. There's nothing in the Palin's returns that's odd, it was just the suggestion by AP that there was something to hide. Go back and look at when the Biden's released their returns....you guessed it, on a Friday, with NO mention of "dumping" to avoid attention. There is no end to these examples from the press that has embraced this candidate like no other in history.

It is hard for me Joe, to quite believe that this country is on the verge of electing Barack Obama President of the US....if a Republican candidate held the extreme views (on the conservative side) and the personal associations, and the thin resume that Obama holds, that candidate would (1) be ridiculed relentlessly, and (2) never make it out of the primary. Yet, on the Democratic side, that candidate is about to ride a wave of euphoria and media adulation to become the most powerful person in the world...it's really remarkable and frankly, quite frightening.

[Brenda Bowers]

With you here Everett: Obama terrifies me.

He will stuff the White House with thugs and the federal courts with thugs (notice the Dems are not appointing Bush's judges but keeping the opening for Obama to fill). But I am afraid this man is goi9ng to win the election by hook or crook. Very possibly by crook from all the voter registration fraud reports I'm reading. Couple that with the defective Diebold voting machines states and counties bought and the scene is set for shenanigans on a stupendous scale. BB

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy, Obama will continue to demagogue the tax issue, and many people will continue to be fooled. And last night, he demonstrated more of his tendency to sustain the continuous negative attacks.

Beau, while McCain did not attack as forcefully as you or I might have hoped, he managed to raise some serious questions about Obama, and my hope those questions will linger in voters' minds. The format did not lend itself well to attacks against Obama on the basis of his past and his alliances.

Fred, I agree the debate questions were not terribly good, and in many respects this was a replay of the first debate. The risk is that people will stop listening, and not even bother watching the 3rd debate.

Everest and Brenda, it is a bit scary, and frankly unbelievable, that the nation may be on the brink of electing a far left, ultraliberal, radical/socialist like Obama. But check out my next post. Zogby has them only 1.9 points apart.

[Jeffrey Sykes]

"Health care is a right" ought to be the headline on every news outlet in America.

Startling.

[Joe Guarino]

Indeed, Jeff, it is startling. The problem is that a lot of misguided folks will agree.

[Stormy]

I did learn something new last night from Obama. He said that a group of government scientists invented the computer. He was using this as evidence that we need the government to be the center of development, not private enterprise. That would be impressive, if it was true. Depending upon your definition of "invent", there are several different possibilities of who "invented" the computer, but if we assume that he meant the world's first electronic-digital computer, then the correct answer is:

"Professor John Atanasoff and graduate student Clifford Berry built the world’s first electronic-digital computer at Iowa State University between 1939 and 1942. The Atanasoff-Berry Computer represented several innovations in computing, including a binary system of arithmetic, parallel processing, regenerative memory, and a separation of memory and computing functions."

I knew when I heard that one, he was wrong. I suspect that Obama knew that it was wrong as well, but it worked to make his point about government. The truth is that government rarely makes breakthroughs, it's private enterprise or academia.

I thought that he might have meant the internet being invented by government scientists, but we already know that Al Gore did that.

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy, he was using that point, if I remember correctly, to justify his spending proposals on alternative energy. When he made that statement, I thought he may have been referring to the space program and its impact on the development of computer technology. But I appreciate your comment, because I was unaware of that bit of history.

Of course, it will be Obama's worldview that good things are more likely to arise from governmental interventions.

[Stormy]

Joe,

You are correct that Obama's point was to justify government "investment in alternative energey". We should understand that in Obamspeak, government investment = taxation.

I'm not sure what Obama was referring to when he said that the computer was invented by a group of government scientists, but the space program would be a stretch to connect that with the development of the computer.

As I listen to these debates, I am impressed by Obama and Biden and their willingness to play lose and fast with facts. My guess is that they are talking on the fly, and it sounds good to the casual listener. They sound authoritative and decisive at the time, and the average listener is impressed. That same listener will not take any efforts to fact-check their statements, and the MSM rarely ever makes a point of the mis-statement.

[Stormy]

I agree with Fred. It was to be a town hall meeting, but questions were funneled through Brokaw, who decided what questions would be asked. As a result, the questions that got asked were, at best, pedestrian. The questions allowed both candidates to basically give their stump speeches and talking points. Only perhaps the past question required any through on part of the two candidates, or give us any insight into the candidate themselves. Some creative questions might have been more helpful. Something like "What one association in your life had the greatest impact upon your life and help mold your life and political philosophy, and why?" That would have given Obama the opportunity to tel us about learning at the feet of the great Chicago Socialist, Saul Alinsky.

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy, I have to agree. The subsequent fact checking of Biden's debate points was devastating.

Obama will tend to use words and phrases and arguments to make himself seem much more moderate than he truly is, and to make his policies seem more reasonable than they actually are. That is part of the deception.

And the debate was somewhat of a disappointment from the standpoint of not hearing much that was different than what we had heard before.

[Stormy]

The one word takeaway from Obama and Biden in the debates is that their worldview is summarized in one word that they use regularly, and that word is "fairness". They both used this word often. And, fairness is a code word for equal outcomes, or equality through income redistribution. And, we all know that the cornerstone of a socialistic society is income redistribution via government tax policy.

In short folks, Obama WILL raise taxes, and it will not be only on the rich. There is not enough tax to be derived from the rich to pay for all of the government programs that Obama will implement. Any economist worth their weight will tell you that raising taxes on anyone in a recessionary economy will create chaos. If you want to see jobs go away boys, then elect Barack Obama.

[Stormy]

When some of the citizens in the town hall meeting asked their selected question, I wasn't even sure what the question was, and as a result, the candidates could both answer the question in any manner they choose. Brokaw was a huge disappointment. This was a poor excuse for a town hall meeting. Of course, that worked to Obama's advantage, since that format was to be McCain's strength, which was essentially negated.

I will admit that Barack Obama is an intelligent and well-spoken individual, but so far, McCain has not done a good job of exposing Obama's biggest flaw, his political philosophy. I really do not think that the American people would knowingly elect as president a person that holds political views that could be categorized as socialist. If you took a poll and asked if they would vote to elect a socialist, the answer would be a resounding No Way. So, if that is the case, why should we elect a man who is a socialist? McCain has to expose that or he will lose.

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy, I tend to agree. Merely raising concerns about Obama's past alliances and dalliances, while important, will not be enough. McCain needs to differentiate himself more from Obama on his policy positions better. He could have done a much better job, for instance, on health care last night.

And you are right about Obama's use of fairness. He complained how it is not fair to keep taxes at current levels for high wage earners-- but he neglects to point out these folks, for the most part, already pay much more taxes as a proportion of their income than those in the lower and lower/middle income brackets. He has a convoluted notion of fairness that he is trying to transmit.

[Stormy]

I also wondered what Joe Biden's constituents in Delaware thought about Obama's put-down of the state for its ease of regulation for credit care companies? He was making a point about the value of state regulation of insurance companies, and went there to make a point about the troubles that can develop from lax state regulation. It's true that many financial companies choose to charter in Delaware because it is business-friendly, but still for him to slam the state of his VP candidate was stunning.

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy, liberals oft don't want to acknowledge that businesses will follow the path of least resistance. Tax and regulate too much, and they will find another place to go.

[Sue]

(Long alert)

Joe, if you own your office, what is top-quality health care costing your firm to cover all its employees - I assume you do? The general figure is 25% of salary and now it's closer to 38% - and that's not for "cadillac" coverage. 1500 of the 1800 members of the GSO Chamber are small businesses but the law prevents the Chamber from offering group benefits to its members. I've heard only one candidate talk about that in real dollars (50% tax break) and that's Obama's plan. Small biz thrives; hires people; insures them; we have a healthier population because small biz will have to survive to get us out of this muck.

DL is corporation friendly; a very good idea to incorporate there. They have no sales tax. Sen. McCain wants nuclear power without discussing nuclear waste - what are the treatment options for exposed children? And can we send the nuclear waste to Arizona, where he doesn't think it's much to worry about?

As much as you'd like it to be, this has nothing to do with Mr. Ayers - that's a distraction. What this does have to do with in a very slippery and scary fashion is having Americans call a presidential candidate a traitor; to throw vile racial epithets at a journalist of color; to yell "kill him" - all in the celebration of "democracy," while all I want is better health care options for the people who work for my company and only one candidate is offering that clearly. It hash Cindy McCain condemning Obama for voting against the same bill her husband nay'ed as well. Is this the level of choosing a President you want to dwell in?

It's not about put-downs, or name calling, or a guy did something very bad so long ago and has changed - it's not about silly interviews on TV or pregnant teens. It's about who is more likely to get me (and thousands of other small business owners) the tools we need to hire talented people and retain them through the same health care quality our parents enjoyed and told us that *had* to get as part of our natural 'work hard, do well, succeed' mantra that raised us? (kind of like the level of care that both Obama and McCain enjoy everyday.)

Try as hard you want to make this about a 60s radical (grown up and better dressed) and even put one silly pastor up against another silly one if that floats your boat. But I want is health insurance, small business support, the right to do business and not be hampered by government, and I want the ability to understand where the money's coming from. I pay $12k/year for decent health insurance. McCain's plan offers my business nothing. Obama's offers what we need to hire and grow. I've read the numbers and they can work, especially if we stop spending $10B/month in eye-rak.

Long post? Yes. But thoughtful. Perhaps someone might endeavor to return the thoughts and save the tit for tat and past associations for another forum.

Tell me: what does John McCain's platform do to help small business with health care, growth, and business advantage? I know what "that one's" plan offers (it's out there, I studied it). The other one is simply numbers that change every day and gives small biz no incentive to cover everyone.

Can you convince me his plan is better for the thousands of small business who might just make a positive impact on this scary economic reality? Without saying "William Ayers?"

[Everest]

Sue - yours was a thoughtful post, and while I will address without saying "W...iam Ayers" I think who our candidates choose to spend time with is an indication of how they think. I don't worry that Obama is a terrorist (that's silly), I worry that he is hiding how actually liberal he is to get elected...and that discussion certainly merits some time.

I also own a small business, and I've studied the plans of each candidate as well - but not just on health care. Look at their plans on income tax rates, dividend capital, capital gains, payroll taxes, etc. When Obama eliminates the cap on payroll tax, that will have a significant impact on my business. When he moves dividend rates to nearly 40%, that will have an impact on my business. When he says he will eliminate the Bush tax cuts and thus deliver the largest tax increase in American History, that will have an impact on my business. Obama suggests that he will "cut taxes" on 95% of all Americans - well guess what, half of those people don't pay income tax today anyway. That plan, regardless of party affiliation, is called income redistribution. As a fellow small business owner, I think my taxes are already high enough, and think if there are any sacrifices to be made (per the debate question the other night) Washington ought to be making them.

As a fellow small business owner, it's hard for me to understand why you like Obama's plan. He's going to MANDATE that you either (1) pay for your employee's coverage, or (2) increase the payroll tax you pay if you choose not to cover them. And what about your employees? What if they are already covered by another plan....? Then guess what, you may still pay the payroll tax (Obama has not answered this directly.) And worse for your employee, their coverage is tied to you - if they retire or get a better job, they risk their coverage...is that what's best for them?

What seems to make sense to me is to provide a tax credit, per McCain, to allow people to buy their own coverage. When I started my business, I bought my own insurance through Blue Cross (since I was the only early employee), with great coverage ($1,000 ded.) for less than $1500 annually. I'm about 40, in good health and I think that's pretty cheap. What Obama is doing it limiting employees choice to their employers' coverage or turning to the federal government. Sue, I just watched what the federal government did to the mortgage market when they tried to force Fannie/Freddie to allow all individuals to buy a home...I would just as soon they not get involved in mandates concerning health care as well.

There are numerous other issues with health care to discuss - interstate portability, pre-existing conditions, etc...but it's a good discussion to have.

[Joe Guarino]

Everest, thanks for your comments in response to Sue. I echo much of what you have to say.

And Sue, I am not sure I am relying on the federal government to make my business succeed. I would much rather the federal government just get out of the way. McCain offers a better plan for health care by dealing with the chief driver of health care inflation-- the fact that the federal government preferentially subsidizes third party insurance, purchased by employers, through a tax deduction; but has not always extended that same tax deduction to individuals and families.