Does McCain have a chance in NY and NJ?

Over the last couple of days, polls have been reported suggesting that John McCain is within striking distance of Barack Obama in New York and New Jersey.

The New York Sun reports that McCain is only five points behind among likely voters in New York State.  And according to Newsmax, Obama leads McCain by only three percentage points among likely voters in New Jersey.

These two states are not ordinarily considered battleground states.  However, there are reasons to believe they could become competitive this year.  After all, this is a very unusual election cycle.

These two states share a very large population that is part of the NYC metropolitan area, and as such, are uniquely vulnerable to acts of terrorism.  Their populations will be a bit more attentive with regard to which candidate is stronger on matters related to national security.

The presence of a very liberal African-American candidate and a conservative woman on the respective tickets also skews the matter.  Some women in these two states will likely vote Republican because of Sarah Palin.  And it is unclear how much appeal Barack Obama will ultimately have with the working class populations in these two states.

There is one final factor.  The share of the population in each respective state that is African-American is not extraordinarily high.  In New York, it is 15.9% according to 2000 census figures, and in New Jersey it is 13.4%.  Barack Obama can count on 90-95% of these votes; but the share of the overall population is not nearly as high as it is, say, through much of the south.

I am not predicting a McCain victory in either of these two northeastern states.  But it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he could win either, or both.

Comments

[Brenda Bowers]

I'm with you in thinking that McCain's stand on national security has a good chance of getting him both NY and NJ. Obama will surely take money away from homeland security in order to fund his social agenda.

What bothers me is the Jewish vote being reported as up for grabs in Florida. I can't see the Jewish vote going against Israel and to elected Obama is to throw Israel to the dogs. BB

[Joe Guarino]

Brenda, I agree that NY and NJ could theoretically be up for grabs. These are always very difficult states for Republicans, but this is an unusual year.

McCain is doing very well in the polls in Florida, and I presume the Jewish vote may be part of the reason.

[Brenda Bowers]

You're right Joe. I was commenting on what I heard on the 6:00 pm News last night, but a look at the polls elsewhere tells a different story. The MSM! BB

[bubba]

Although it's nice to think that the wisdom of normal everyday voters in NJ and NY will outweigh the influence of the panderers, McCain is still a long shot in those areas.

He won't need them

It looks like MI and PA may be a good bet to join OH in the Republican electoral vote column.

If so, the election's over.

The One will be relegated to the historical footnote status he so well deserves.

[Joe Guarino]

Let's hope so, Bubba. The conventional wisdom would suggest if New York or New Jersey votes McCain, it is probably a landslide in his favor. But would it not be amazing if one of these states provided the margin of victory?