The Saddleback Presidential Forum

I have to admit that I was a bit wary of what Rick Warren was trying to do with his Presidential Forum.  But after watching for two hours, I am convinced that the event worked to John McCain's benefit.

The two candidates-- McCain and Obama--  were interviewed for one hour each by the megachurch pastor.  I will not attempt to report the details of the candidates' responses.

But it was clear that, in the long run, McCain's message resonated more deeply with the church audience.  Yes, Obama was greeted enthusiastically by a percentage of the congregation, and he was smooth and slick.  He presented himself well, as he always does.  But he made some mistakes, and tended to equivocate and overintellectualize on some important questions.  And that is being charitable.

But overall, the night was McCain's.  His responses were poignant at times-- capable of eliciting emotion and, yes, a few tears.  He was exceeedingly likeable, and a bit feisty at various points.  But he also demonstrated a decisive streak.  Most importantly, he found ways of answering questions, addressing issues, and using images and language that enabled him to connect with his audience on a deep level.

As I watched, it occurred to me that McCain tends to grow on you.  You may not agree with all of his positions, but you cannot help but like and respect the guy.

If tonight is any indication, I think we have a real contest this year.

Comments

[Roch101]

I agree. McCain did well. He needs the evangelicals to win. Obama may not have topped McCain, but did he do well enough to siphon off some of McCain's support from evangelicals? I think he may have.

[Joe Guarino]

Roch, you may be right. But I also think that Obama already had the support of some evangelicals--and will continue to have some of their support. The reason? Not all evangelicals are necessarily conservative Christians. Some have been undoubtedly caught up in the hysteria surrounding his candidacy.

And I am not sure if the Saddleback Church is necessarily representative of evangelicals nationally, or of conservative Christians. The church is, after all, located in California.

But evangelicals are not the monolithic group politically they have been made out to be. Many self-identify as Democrats, and/or vote Democratic.

But many evangelicals continue to place primacy on those two issues-- abortion and gay marriage-- and some are only now beginning to pay attention.

[Roch101]

Only about 20% of evangelicals voted for Kerry in 2004. I suspect Obama will do better, which leaves McCain with a deficit to overcome with other demographics.

[Joe Guarino]

You may be right, Roch. Despite enormous advantages, however, Obama still does not break consistently above the approximate 46% mark in the polls, and there are considerable misgivings emerging among the electorate about him.

The race is probably going to be decided by those whose allegiances are changeable, and by the undecideds. Some evangelics are a subset of that group.

[Everest]

Joe - I agree that McCain did well, and I was a bit surprised by that. I thought he came off very sincere, very direct and pretty charming. We expect that from Obama, and he was, but I wasn't expecting that much from McCain and was pleasantly surprised. I think you're right that he does grow on you...

As Roch suggests, Obama will probably do better among evangelicals than Kerry did (did I just agree with Roch??) - but I think last night may have changed that a bit, in two ways. Obama's response to the "conception" question - "above my pay grade" was a total flub, and I think will come back to haunt him. Additionally, while he is more comfortable discussing his faith, I believe that his dicussing his faith will continue to remind people of who his spiritual advisor was....and that's NOT in Obama's best interest....

[Joe Guarino]

Some good points, Everest. Obama uses language that is familiar to evangelicals, but in fact he hails from the religious left. Folks are just now beginning to come to terms with who he really is.

We were previously treated to an idealized version of Barack Obama over a period of many months-- indeed, over a period of several years-- and now we need to ask ourselves what he truly represents.

[Roch101]

What is the "religious left?"

[Joe Guarino]

The "religious left" include those faith traditions and clergy who mix religion with politics on the left side of the political spectrum. It includes many of the most political mainline Protestant churches, various dissident elements within Catholicism, some Jewish (excepting the Orthodox Jews), and certain black churches.

[Stormy]

Would it be safe to say that Jeremiah Wright and Father Pleger are part of the "religious left"? I'd say so. I'm sure that Roch has a clear understanding view of the "religious right"

I though that it was interesting that when asked who he would look to for advice as President, and Obama's first two advisers were his wife and his grandmother. Most interesting choices for political advisers to a President. Of course, he threw-in Sam Nunn as a third choice, but still, it is very interesting that Michelle Obama would be the prime political adviser to Barack, and his white grandma, who he threw under the bus for being a racist.

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy, the grandma is becoming politically useful now that we are in the general election season. We are now told he consults with her often; and of course we are told he visited her every day when he vacationed in Hawaii.

[Stormy]

It sounds as though Barack is being honest when he says Michelle will be his prime political adviser, when it is reported that she nixed Joe Biden as the VP candidate. It may well be that Michelle Obama will have as much power in the White House as Hillary Clinton had 16 years ago. We could be getting a two-fer again.