ABC Debate

I have been watching the ABC debates.  Charles Gibson and ABC have done a very good job overall of planning and running the debate this evening.  We can quibble over minor points, but it is rare to see a debate this authentic.

On the Republican side, Giuliani and Thompson did reasonably well.  Huckabee seemed to be less in command than during previous debates.  There were repeated verbal barbs given and received by Huckabee, McCain and Romney.  Romney appeared strong during certain parts of the debate, and weak during other segments.  It is unclear to me whether the negative approach taken by McCain will hurt or help him.

Giuliani and Thompson had the best ideas on health care.  Romney, Huckabee and Thompson struck the most hard-line pose on immigration.  There was an attempt to stigmatize Huckabee for his criticism of the Bush Administration on its "bunker mentality."

On the Democratic side, I have only seen one half so far.  Hillary Clinton came pretty close to losing control after others suggested she represented the status quo.  If that moment is emphasized in the subsequent news coverage, I think she may have problems.  She also comes off as being a harsh partisan. 

Bill Richardson is being granted ample face time; and at least gives the appearance of being reasonable and persuasive in spite of his positions.  Obama appeared a bit unsure of himself, and found himself the focus of some attempts to undermine his credibility.  John Edwards started out a bit slow, but his performance was strengthening significantly as the debate progressed.  The  quality of their ideas is another matter entirely.

The winners so far tonight? Thompson, Giuliani, Edwards and Richardson. That does not necessarily mean they will win New Hampshire.  It is difficult to know how the Republican pecking order in New Hampshire will be affected by this debate.

Update: During the second half of the Democratic debate, Obama regained his footing somewhat, and Hillary her composure.  Edwards launched into some of his class warfare rhetoric.  But it appears that Edwards might have helped himself tonight by virtue of his debating and presentation skills; and Hillary might have hurt herself.  Richardson at least may have placed himself on the radar screen.

Comments

[Fred Gregory]

Joe,
Watch it again . Richardson comes off as nervous,uneasy, confused, erratic , bumbling and quite frankly pathetic. Not that it matters but he has been angling for the VP slot, with his paltry 2%, from whoever gets the nomination. Seriously not ready for prime time !!!!!

[Fred Gregory]

ABC in its opening set up did just that , set up the donkeys to bash Bush for not preparing us from the ants at the picnic. Pardon me but their bias was in full frontal nudity.

[Nick]

I am back. Thank you for having posts other than GPD and Chief Wray blah blah blah. What a refreshing change.

I agree with your comments Joe. Edwards did well, as well as Rudy. This will be interesting for sure. Two questions: (1) Do you think Clinton is dead in the water if she loses NH? ( I dont think so but she will be severely wounded) (2) Do you really think America will elect a black/mixed President? (Iowa supporting Obama really surprised me and he does have a great populist and unifying message for dems/repubs/indeps. but I dont think this country is ready.)

[Stormy]

Nick,

Your post on Obama sounds like a set-up to me, hoping someone will jump on it and reveal themselves as racists. No one here is going to take the bait. If he doesn't get elected, it won't be because he is black, it'll be because he is not prepared for presidential prime time.

[Dr. Mary Johnson]

Jeepers, Nick. If the hood fits . . . wear it.

I didn't watch. They all need to duke it out in a few more primaries . . . and thin the ranks to the real contenders . . . before I start watching "debates".

As I told MeB, where Edwards is concerned, it's a train wreck either way . . . for him if he loses . . . for us if he can turn it all around and win.

[Everest]

Joe - what shocked me the most about both debates was the format, and how "fair" ABC was...now, the bar for fairness from the major networks is admittedly pretty low, but that was the kind of debate we need to see. More freedom to discuss ideas, and not just 30-second sound bites.

I think Hillary is done....and Obama is the nominee. He came off, I thought, more polished and confident than I remember him being in past debates. For Nick, when Iowa (with about 5% minorities in the caucus) pushes Obama past Edwards/Clinton/Biden/etc...then his race is a non-issue. To his credit, Obama has not allowed himself to be defined by his race, much to the media's chagrin.

I thought Thompson did well, and Huckabee is now under the spotlight/microscope...and it shows. I still think Fred has the best basic conservative policy proposals, but probably has no chance. It's also clear that some of these guys just don't like each other!

[Brenda Bowers]

When comparing Thompson with the others as far as performance we do have to remember that he is an actor.

I was happy to see Hillary losing it. My impression when talking to people is that they really believe a vote for Hillary is to get Bill back. And I still believe if he could run again he would be elected again.

I thought my man Rudy did well. BB

Oh, and Fred....YES! Don't necessarily agree with everything you said, but Boy do I like your eloquence. BB

[Joe Guarino]

Fred, there was another instance of bias with respect to the manner in which the ABC medical correspondent introduced the health care issue to the GOP candidates. But overall, as Everest suggests, this was considerably different than what we had seen in the past. I found your comments about Richardson interesting. I wonder how others perceived him.

[Joe Guarino]

Nick, not to worry, but we will be back with the GPD forthwith.

I don't know if she would be dead in the water, but it is clear she is already an injured puppy. Even though she launched a semi-effective attack on Obama last night, she did not do well overall; and certainly her affect and manner does not endear her to voters. In fact, as I suggested, she seemed to have a near-meltdown at one point.

It is also clear that Edwards smells the blood in the water, and is circling for the kill. He knows that her weakness can be used to his advantage, and was using his instincts as a courtroom gladiator last night to capitalize.

Yes, I think America is ready to elect a black/mixed president. As I had indicated in a post Friday, Obama is strong on the stump, but it appears not as strong in debate or on the issues. If he received the nomination, he would have the inside track to win because, as things now stand, this does not appear to be a Republican year.

But the question is whether his opponents will allow that to happen. Edwards now seems to be angling to kill off Hillary so he can take on Obama.

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy and Mary, I for the most part agree. Obama's big victory in Iowa granted Edwards an opening, but I am not partial toward any of the Democratic big three.

[Joe Guarino]

Everest, I found interesting your perception that Hillary is done. It certainly has that appearance, although I am not completely sure. And I guess I did not see what you saw in Obama's performance.

I think a very instructive moment was after the debate ended, when Edwards appeared quite satisfied; and Hillary and Obama appeared a bit unhappy, even almost bewildered.

Brenda, it appears we saw it for the most part similarly.

[Fred Gregory]

I found it weird to the point of surreal that some of the Democrat candidates were throwing out their own bizarre off the wall hypotheticals, such as Hillary when she said that the US would notify the GOP when missles where on the way to ( target uncertain ) vaporize OBL, so they wouldn't think India was attacking them.

I am not 100% sure so I'd have to see the transcript , but I believe Obama contradicted him self on his " if diplomacy fails we will unilateraly go into Pakistan " by later saying that of course it would be with Pakistan's agreement.

I have for the most part avoided the televised debates but I thought Thompson was the clear winner last night on the Republican side and not just because he has a noble forename .

And Brenda if that compliment was meant for me..Thanks !. I have been called many things but I don't think eloquent has ever been among them.

Finally ..was that group hug scripted? Yuk !

[Joe Guarino]

And another important question, Fred, is how the debate last night (and the FOX debate tonight) will influence the numbers at the polls. I just don't know how fluid things are in New Hampshire right now.

And by the way, Ron Paul is an enormous distraction at this point. He made the ludicrous assertion last night that Iraq is responsible for our health care problems.

[Fred Gregory]

Hmmm.. Wonder if Obama was cribbing the NY Times last night with his bold policy thought

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/washington/06terror.html?ei=5065&en=4d9a85a2dc657cc0&ex=1200286800&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

[Dr. Mary Johnson]

Joe, I'm gonna take the liberty of repeating here part of my give & take with MeB at Housecalls:

I am currently fascinated by the "she got angry" spin-fest regarding Hillary's performance. I mean come on. We know what Hillary is and what she is capable of. Yet in her defense (Lord help me), the current hullabaloo demonstrates resoundingly that a woman cannot be passionate or powerful without being perceived as a "bitch".

If this is going to happen every time Hillary furrows her brow (as if "the guys" don't do it), forget the question (as posed by "Nick" over at Gurarino's), "Is America ready for a black President?" . . . we're not ready for a woman.

In watching the "instant replays" this morning on the various news programs, Edwards strikes me even more as a smug and self-satisfied trial-lawyer. He cannot help but smirk when he knows he scored some points.

[Bubba]

"And by the way, Ron Paul is an enormous distraction at this point. He made the ludicrous assertion last night that Iraq is responsible for our health care problems."

Ron Paul is an enormous disaster waiting to happen, as discussed here:

http://edcone.typepad.com/wordup/2008/01/rue-paul.html

[Joe Guarino]

Fred, it appears that, on top of all his other virtues, Obama is also clairvoyant.:)

Mary, it will be interesting to see whether Edwards' performance influences the results Tuesday night. It might, or it might not. But I think that the problem with Hillary goes beyond gender. The country will elect a female president. Her problem is likability, and these candidates all have to figure out a way to get people to like them if they want to succeed.

Bubba, it appears that Paul, who has at times appeared well-grounded on many issues, is ascending into the Twilight Zone.

[Stormy]

Dr. Mary,

This country is ready for a woman president, but Hilary Clinton is not that woman. She has too much of a track record as being controlling, mean, vindictive, and power hungry.

[Dr. Mary Johnson]

No argument from me on Hillary, Stormy. I just think where women are concerned, the scales are way-tipped in the perceptions department.

Strong equals "bitch". Been there done that.

[Bubba]

Here's what Captain Ed said about RonPaul's little contribution:

"Everyone got a chance to score a few points off of Ron Paul, who trotted out the same tired 'terrorism is our fault' theme that he just can't seem to surrender.

In that vein, I had to wonder a little bit about Paul's supposed devotion to the Constitution. He said that we can't afford to spend a trillion dollars on health care because we're in a trillion-dollar war. Wouldn't an originalist also mention that the federal government doesn't have a Constitutional mandate to spend the trillion dollars on health care -- and at least acknowledge that it does have that mandate for national security, even if Paul thinks the policy is misguided?"

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/016535.php

[Joe Guarino]

Bubba, of course, that was one of the absurdities of his argument. But he was so eager to make his point against the war that he was willing to pander-- even if it defied his own previous positions regarding proper constitutional limits on activities undertaken by the federal government.

[Everest]

Joe - one thing I didn't hear on the morning shows was the comment Bill Richardson made about President Musharraf of Pakistan. Richardson said as President, he would ask Musharraf to step aside...and give the reigns of that country to...who? For a party that "prides" itself on not pushing our beliefs on other countries, this seems rich.

Further, whatever you think of Musharraf, he has been a strong ally of the US at enormous personal risk. That he has repeatedly sided with the US against the will of many of his own people is a testament to his resolve. Again, not saying he is perfect, but was a better ally than many of our European "friends" the past 5 years.

[Joe Guarino]

Everest, there was some naivete in his statement also. In some respect, we need Pakistan more than they need us. We need permission to use their airspace to reach Afghanistan. Violating their sovreinty to pursue Bin Laden, or interfering with their political processes, is very difficult.

We have to be concerned they may be complicit with al Qaeda and/or the Taliban. But in the absence of anything discrete being demonstrated, are we really ready to take action unilaterally against such a country, and make demands of them, particularly when they have nukes?

Pakistan has posed real dilemmas since day 1.

[Stormy]

Out next President better be someone who can skillfully deal with Iran and Pakistan. Our future depends upon it. Unfortunately, the Dem candidates seem to be ready to step away from global involvement and focus their attention and our resources upon domestic issues. Domestic issues are important to all of us as citizens, but national security trumps it all. I fear that many voters this year don't want to look at it in that manner.

[Joe Guarino]

I agree, Stormy. Unfortunately, as you suggest, the mood of the electorate is away from national security issues and the war on terror. This is partially because of fatigue with Iraq, partially because of the success of the Surge.

We don't feel as vulnerable, but of course, this can be very illusory.

[Stormy]

Joe,

In conversations with some of the committed left, they feel that the War on Terror is just a joke that Bush invented. They really do not believe that terror is a reality. It is a head-scratcher for me, but that is how they feel. They feel that we have been wasting money in Iraq, Afganistan, etc. that could and should be used for social program like universal health insurance, etc.

By the way, we had a discussion a few months ago about Katrina and the lack of insurance in that area. Well, I read today that claims are coming in against the Corps of Engineers for negligence with the levees, and the claims will amount to more than the governments' possible ability to pay. Somehow, I knew this was coming. It's just another move in this country for everyone to look to the government to solve their problems.

On that note, will FEMA have a bail-out for the hundreds of people that were flooded-out of their homes in Nevada? You can be that most had no flood insurance, and homeowners should not cover that loss since it was flood.

[Joe Guarino]

Stormy, the folks to whom you refer, at best, want to merely play defense against terrorism.

It still amazes me how the Katrina political steamroller, and other representations of entitlement, made it so difficult to defend intellectually in the public square against these types of abuses.

[Bubba]

"Stormy, the folks to whom you refer, at best, want to merely play defense against terrorism."

You are FAR too generous with your description, Joe.

[Bubba]

Like the rest of us, the Dems are PRAYING that a major terrorist attack doesn't take place this year.

Their reasons for praying that such an event takes place are FAR different from the reasons we pray that this doesn't happen.

[Nick]

Well the near meltdown with Clinton happened with her "showing emotions" when being questioned. Frankly I think this is not fair to her and the media is having a field day with it. On one hand she is criticized for not showing emotion. Now she shows emotion and i bet some will now see that as a sign of weakness. (I.e will she cry when/if terrorist strike again. I dont'think the Clinton campaign can survive even though they say she will hang in there until Super Tuesday in February.

I must admit, Obama makes me hopeful when he speaks about change and unity which this country sorely needs. It is extremely smart of him to reach out to Dems, Reps and independents. The presidential election will be won by who can win the independents and all signs point to them leaning dem this election. There was an analyst (I believe on Fox) that said the last debates showed the Dems as the party of change and that the Repubs came off as a party of grumpy old men. To think we could be part of a generation that could elect a minority president is quite sobering and interesting as Iowa voters proved as will NH voters. Obama is the real deal but I still question if he can win the national election once his positions are vetted. While the "experience" mantra is not working for Clinton, I believe in the end experience will matter to voters. I think the Dems would be shortsighted to write off Clinton or even Edwards entirely since Obama may ultimately be an empty suit.

BTW Stormy---no setup..The same question about Obama is being asked by national media and openly discussed. Is there some taboo that I crossed by bringing it up for a local discussion?? I think not. Thanks Joe for the response!

[Joe Guarino]

Bubba, you are right that the Democrats are helped if we are not perceived to be at risk from terrorism, and they know it.

Nick, I agree with you with respect to experience and policy positions with Obama. Right now he is the beneficiary of enthusiasm and momentum. The question is whether it can be sustained for ten more months in the particular package he presents. But I also agree-- appeal to independents and those in the middle will be important for the candidate of either party in November.